This is the dilemma Trump is facing as war with Iran escalates

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Tuesday, 3 March 2026 07:03

By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor

Take the win or double down.

That's Donald Trump's dilemma as the war escalates with Iran.

He says there could be weeks more to go, so is he serious and can the US last that long?

Ahead of the war, in highly unusual leaks Pentagon commanders warned the force being assembled in the region would have enough firepower for a week or two at most.

Iran latest: Follow live updates

The clock may be running faster for America's allies in the region. Well-sourced reports claim Gulf states are already begging the US president to end this soon, not least because their stocks of air defence missiles are dwindling worryingly quickly.

This war is asymmetrical. As unbalanced as using Ferraris against e-bikes it's been said. A multi-million-dollar state-of-the-art Patriot missile for instance will bring down a drone worth only thousands, but doing so indefinitely is not sustainable.

Iran's strategy to lash out in multiple directions has surprised many. It should not have. They have long warned they would take the gloves off if they faced an attempt to change their regime.

It could cost them. Gulf states and Saudi Arabia will now be considering joining the fight against Iran with their own forces.

But for now, the strategy is already working, putting pressure on the US from vital regional allies to end this war but also forcing their attackers to deplete their stocks of astronomically expensive weaponry.

Read more:
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There are unknowns. How quickly can the US reinforce its fighting capability and crucially what is happening on the ground. Is Israel softening up parts of the country from the air to enable regional uprisings armed by agents in the field?

That could take the war in a very different direction - the fragmentation of Iran and internal civil war.

There is no sign of that yet. In the absence of such strategies the regime will most likely survive a few weeks of aerial onslaught however ferocious.

This war is asymmetric in another way too, that of desired outcomes. To win, Israel and America must bring about regime change because that is their objective. To declare victory the regime therefore needs only survive, for as long as it takes.

And maintaining the pace of their attacks on Iran indefinitely for both the US and Israel is not an option.

More US pilots will be shot down, or troops killed on the ground, the impact on the global economy will be too great, regional allies and stability will be too punishing. Domestic support for another foreign war will continue haemorrhaging.

For whatever reason, this war will have its limits and if the Iranian regime still stands when it reaches that point, what happens then?

Sky News

(c) Sky News 2026: This is the dilemma Trump is facing as war with Iran escalates

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