Tottenham: From top four to trapdoor - Spurs’ relegation threat is real with West Ham on the charge

There is a clear trajectory when assessing the probability of Tottenham being relegated this season. And right now, it's never been more likely.

Turning to the betting markets at times like this are always a reliable pointer. They have a habit of cutting through noise and sentiment. They don't deal in romance or reputation.

They deal in cold, hard probability. And right now, they are sending a shiver down the white half of north London.

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Since the turn of the year, the drop in odds when it comes to Spurs and the dreaded drop has been one-way traffic.

100/1. 66/1. 33/1. 10/1.

As it stands, Spurs are now 5/1 with Sky Bet to be relegated from the Premier League. An implied probability of 16 per cent.

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Wouldn't it be just so Spurs to win the Champions League and suffer relegation?

But this predicament is no joke.

With just 12 games to play, Spurs, sensationally, have been dragged into a relegation scrap. They are more likely to be relegated than both Leeds and Sunderland. Who would have foreseen that when the first ball was kicked in August?

Prices like this are built on performance data, remaining fixtures, underlying numbers and, crucially in Tottenham's case, the strength of those around you. And this is where their problem deepens.

West Ham are in the midst of a tear in terms of points in the Premier League.

Across the last six games, they have taken 10 points - the fourth most of any team. If it wasn't for stoppage time drama going against them against Chelsea and Manchester United, that figure would be 13. This is a West Ham team completely revamped by Nuno Espirito Santo.

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Despite some late swings going against them, this is a team that looks united playing in front of a fanbase that is seeing signs of survival. In the 1-1 draw with Manchester United on Tuesday night, the London Stadium rocked in the second half like it hasn't rocked since the special European nights of three years ago under David Moyes.

"There's a team spirit here which they can cling on to," reported Sky Sports' Chris Reidy. "The players walk around the pitch applauding the fans, there's genuine belief they can stay up."

Meanwhile, Thomas Frank has overseen just two wins from Tottenham's last 16 matches in the Premier League. If it looks like relegation form, quacks like relegation form, then it's probably relegation form.

"Spurs are in a relegation battle," concluded Sky Sports' Michael Bridge. "There is no confidence in the side and no key players are close to returning."

What makes this threat a serious one is that the bottom end of the Premier League is refusing to play along to the usual script when it comes to survival.

The Hammers' recent surge has warped the safety line. It's injected a level of competitiveness that threatens to drag the survival bar higher than usual. This is starting to look like a season where even 38 points may not be enough to guarantee safety - 40 might be the real target.

That is dangerous territory for any side stuck in a cycle of inconsistency.

For a club that dines regularly at the top table, this is not just uncomfortable reading, it is downright alarming.

'West Ham's results are piling the pressure on'

Former Tottenham defender Michael Dawson on Soccer Special:

"It's an obvious answer. They are in a relegation battle.

"West Ham's results are putting pressure on all the teams above them, including Spurs. Nottingham Forest and Spurs were never in danger because of what was happening below them, but now they have to start winning football matches.

"Tottenham have won one in 11 in the Premier League. They have no wins in eight games. That is a concern. Frank has to realise it and the players have to realise it.

"Yes, they have had numerous injuries. Frank is out of luck but that is the hand he has been dealt and he has to get the best out of the players.

"Next up is Arsenal but then they have Fulham, Crystal Palace, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest. It's a huge run of games."

Tottenham's next five games:

• February 22 - Tottenham vs Arsenal, 4.30pm - live on Sky
• March 1 - Fulham vs Tottenham, 2pm - live on Sky
• March 5 - Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, 8pm
• March 15 - Liverpool vs Tottenham, 4.30pm - live on Sky
• March 22 - Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest, 2.15pm - live on Sky

(c) Sky Sports 2026: Tottenham: From top four to trapdoor - Spurs’ relegation threat is real with West Ham on the charge